Jim Turner

Turnersportsdesk.com

March 24, 2010

The Caps-Pens game will be analyzed to the point of exhaustion by media outlets. Lost in all of the talk about Sidney versus Ovechkin are the numbers which gives us the keys for tonight’s contest.

Goals Per Game (GPG) – Caps 3.88 (NHL Rank #1) - Pens 2.84 (NHL Rank #5) – Advantage Caps – These numbers are pretty obvious and telling. While the Pens are very formidable the Caps are clearly the better team at even strength. They have 7 guys with 20 goals so the Caps have the added confidence of rolling out four lines that can score.

Goals Against Average (GAA) – Caps 2.76 (NHL Rank #17) – Pens 2.84 (NHL Rank #20) – Slight Advantage Caps – Both teams wish they could be better in this area but the Caps hold a slight edge. Since both teams score quite a bit it is only natural that the overall defensive effort not be as effective as on the offensive end.

Powerplay (PP) Caps 25.9% (NHL Rank #1) – Pens 17.0% (NHL Rank #22) – Big Advantage Caps – Once again the numbers tell the story. The Caps are absolutely lethal on the man advantage so they must play their game and force the Pens to start making mistakes.  The Pens will always have a good powerplay even if the numbers are a bit skewed as long as they have guys like Crosby, Malkin and Gonchar at the point. If the Pens or anyone else wants to beat the Caps the biggest key is avoiding the sin-bin.

Penalty Kill (PK) Caps 79.1% (NHL Rank #25) – Pens  84.3% (NHL Rank #7) – Big Advantage Pens – As lethal as the Caps are on the powerplay they are equally as vulnerable on the penalty kill. If the Penguins can play their game and get the Caps making mistakes they can hurt the Caps despite their poor powerplay stats. I’m sure these numbers are not lost on the Pittsburgh coaching staff.

Shots Per Game (SPG) Caps 32.9 (NHL Rank #4) – Pens 32.5 (NHL Rank #5) – No Advantage – Both teams play a puck control game based on offense so neither team has an advantage. Penalties and other factors directly affect shot totals so whoever is best at playing their game will have more shots. The team with the most shots in this game has a big advantage.

Shots Allowed Per game (SA) Caps 30.9 (NHL Rank #19) – Pens 28.7 (NHL Rank #5) – Advantage Pens – This stat looks pretty mundane on the surface but it speaks to discipline and attention to detail. The Pens beat the Caps last year in the playoffs because they played much better defensively than the Caps. Although the games appeared close they really weren’t. The Pens took away what the Caps did best and forced them out of their game. The only thing standing between the Caps and Lord’s Stanley’s cup is discipline and attention to detail.

Goalies – Jose Theodore is smoking right now. He is 16-0-2 with a GAA of 2.40 and a save percentage of .927. Marc Andre Fleury is 11-8-4 over his last 25 appearances with a 2.90 GAA and a save percentage of .905. A hot goalie can steal a game even when a team is not playing great. The Caps have the clear advantage here because Theodore is playing out of his mind right now.

Bottom Line – It appears Malkin is injured enough where even if he plays he will not be close to 100%. Even with Malkin at 100% the Caps still have the overall advantage in this matchup. That said these matchups always bring out the best in both teams. It is imperative that the Caps play their game and force the Pens to adjust.  During the playoffs last year the Pens used the Caps lack of discipline, their inability/unwillingness to go to the net and their tendency to become puck focused against them.  The Caps need to show that they can play a disciplined game and go to the net.