Jim Turner

Turnersportsdesk.com

May 22, 2010

There is a prevailing sentiment within the Caps organization that the loss vs. Montreal was some sort of statistical anomaly. I’ve heard both Coaches and Caps Media representatives speak about the amount of shots as some sort of justification to their conclusion that Halak was the difference. The problem with that theory is the fact that the Flyers are pounding the Habs with a lot fewer shots. Despite all the theories floating around about the Caps demise the numbers suggest that the quality of the scoring chance means a lot more than the quantity in the playoffs. What is a quality scoring chance? In the playoffs they usually come from forcing your opponent to make a mistake which means playing very good defense and fore-checking with enough pressure to create opportunities. First off, let’s dispel this notion that getting a ton of shots is what wins in the playoffs. Take a look at the numbers below:

The numbers show that the Caps are very talented because they generate a ton of shots. The numbers also refute what I’ve heard from Caps officials. The numbers clearly show the more shots the Caps took the less they won. For those of you that watched this series think about all of the shots that Montreal blocked so these shot totals would be even higher. Goalies and defenses are much better in the playoffs. These numbers show me that teams have to work harder to create quality scoring chances. Even Bruce Boudreau said “Many of those shots would be goals during the regular season”. I agree, but as we have seen regular season success means zero during the playoffs. Don’t believe me….Let’s take a look at Pittsburgh and how they fared against the Habs:

Once again the numbers show the exact opposite of what the Caps were saying. Just like Washington, the Pens did better when they took fewer shots. That shows me that Halak is not some sort of super goalie. He can be beaten with fewer and higher quality shots which you have to EARN in the playoffs. The Caps were used to doing whatever they pleased during the regular season with minimal effort. As a Caps fan I watched my team take periods off before turning on the jets to overwhelm teams during the regular season. Obviously they assumed that could continue in the playoffs but to their shock and dismay the game changed and the Caps did not adjust.  Now let’s take a look at what the Flyers have done differently thus far in their series versus Montreal.

So how are the Flyers beating the Habs that shut the Caps and Pens down? The number of shots tells me that Philadelphia plays a much more defensively oriented game than the Caps and Pens. They rely on their defense and fore-check to create quality offensive chances. Unlike the Caps/Pens the Flyers have been able to force the Montreal defense into mistakes which creates quality scoring chances.  Meanwhile the goals the Flyers are scoring are from the quality areas of the ice where Halak struggles just like any other goalie. The pressure the Flyers placed on Montreal has enabled them to get to those high percentage areas of the ice that the Montreal defense denied the Caps and Pens. The Flyers have been successful forcing Halak to make 2^nd and 3^rd saves whenever they got a quality chance. Obviously that is something the Caps/Pens clearly did not do enough of. The lesson for the Washington Capitals lies in the numbers. Talent is great and the Caps have a ton of it, but that talent has to work both smarter and harder on the defensive end  to create more quality chances. The mantra for the Caps next season should be work smarter and harder.